A few months ago Staffan Dryselius made a splash on Team Hack-a-Day with his DIY data glasses.  Since then he’s been working with a team to improve his design and would like to form a larger partnership with anyone interested in working on or owning a pair of AR glasses.  Having a working HMD for augmented reality would help the technology gain wider use.  Currently, we’re stuck with magic lens or web cam AR if we want to play with our favorite technology, though both have come a long way since early 2009.

The group is calling the glasses Maxcware (website not fully functional yet, but contact Staffan below if you want to join.)  If you’re not familiar with the reference in the name, I’ll give you a hint.  The name is from a science-fiction novel from this decade and if you haven’t read it, I highly recommend it (and it’s in the AR reading list.)  If you’d like to contribute to the group, contact him at staffan (at) maxcware (dot) com.

So to learn more about the project, I sat down to interview the man behind the vision (pun intended), Staffan, and since we’re talking about a visual medium here, I’m going to show you the glasses before we get to the interview.

Tom:

Interest in commercial HMDs has increased with spread of
smartphones.  Why did you decide to tackle this problem that the glasses
makers have failed to deliver on?

Staffan:

I had more or less despaired about any non-heinous, high-resolution
see-through HMDs emerging in my lifetime when Vuzix showed off their
new Wraps at CES 2009. When all they finally delivered to the market
turned out to be an opaque lump of plastic, I had finally had it. I
started to suspect that the public would continue to be spoonfed
incremental yesterware more or less forever. No single maker would
have the guts to make their inventory unsellable by launching anything
really nice and new unless forced at gunpoint. I would never get the
glasses I wanted unless I made them myself.

I first got excited about HMDs some time around 1995. There was lots
of interesting research done at the time, and also quite a few
companies advertising products “soon to appear in a store near you”. I
think it was around -96 something that Sony actually launched their
Glasstron model, and there was also the “Olympus Eyetrek” soon
afterwards. I however decided to wait a bit, great things seemed to be
just around the corner. Especially one company, Digilens had an
awesome idea for optical see-through AR-type displays using switchable
Braggs gratings in 98-99… I was very excited at that one especially
(the company has by the way resurfaced as SBG Labs with yet another
vaporware design).

Then the dot.bomb exploded, and everything digital died. “Virtual
Reality” became “Definitive Nonexistence”. The headsets by Sony and
Olympus were phased out, and the Digilens homepage died shortly after
they decided to do fibernet switching chips rather than HMDs… That
was more or less the situation for many years, and I was very
disappointed and soon promised myself to try and forget all about
HMD:s until I saw an advertisement for something really good I could
actually buy in a shop.

Since then, I have read several science fiction books featuring HMDs,
seen the developments in smartphone AR emerge and again felt
frustrated about the non-existence of  useful HMDs.

Enter 2009 and CES. Vuzix were showing their new Wraps. Wow! At last!
I couldn’t wait for the release date for their fabulous new optical
see-through displays! The disappointment was what made me do it. Even
though I didn’t really know how, I had to give it a shot.

Tom:

From the picture, the screens appear to be non see-through.  Is there any
possibility of making them see-through so true augmented reality can be
accomplished?

Staffan:

Yes. And that is the plan too, of course. The first step is to add a
camera to the glasses to feed the display ambient video blended with
digital content. It is much neater not having to point the camera of
the phone itself around to use AR applications in the glasses, as must
be done today. As soon as possible we will also want to add
accelerometers and magnetometers to the glasses.

The top half of the glasses will continue to be completely clear.
There is no need to expand the physical screens any further, only the
virtual screen estate. Those two are quite separate entities, but it
is only when keeping the optics sufficiently close to the eyes that
this becomes really obvious. It’s like peeping through a keyhole: Keep
your eye close enough and the aperture lets you see the whole room.

From the beginning I saw the “see-around” (or rather “see above”)
design combined with “really near eye” optics as just a pragmatic way
to make something useful with available technology. However, a very
nice aspect of the “really near eye”-design is that the physical
movements of the eyes can actually become useful instead of being just
another engineering obstacle. It is especially useful that the eyelids
work as natural shutters, switching to the view that is most
appropriate for the moment. When looking straight ahead or upwards,
the lower eyelids completely block the screen so that light from the
displays doesn’t disturb the natural vision. When looking down, the
upper eyelids block lots of the ambient light that may otherwise
bleach the screen.

Apart from a convenient way to keep alive when traversing a street, it
also means that camera see-through becomes practical. At first, the
mere thought of camera see-through made me shudder. Although that
solution can more or less immediately be used together with Layar and
all the rest of the applications for smartphones, both limited field
of view and latency are fierce problems to combat without a
possibility to momentarily switch to complete see-through. The latency
may not seem too bad at first, but try and navigate while walking at
any speed using only the viewfinder of a video camera. Fixing a camera
to the glasses is far worse and reacts to every jerk of the head. To
keep the screen from bobbing about, you have to take it real slow… If
motion sickness is not enough to make a person reconsider, then the
inevitable robotic choreography should inspire second thoughts about
testing the concept in public.

Tom:
How do you envision the use of these glasses?  Hooked up to an iPhone or
Android (or whatever smartphone you use) to project the screen realtime?  Or
some other usage?

Staffan:

All that is needed is connectivity and some basic sensors. They’re all
there in today’s smartphones, so yes, the glasses will hook up to
them. As many different makes as possible and as easily as possible.
As for uses… Wow! Where to start?

…Humanity is a little like the first amphibians. We’re popping our
heads above the surface of the primordial soup right now. There is a
completely new digital world in the making out there. We are just not
very well adapted to take part in it, and the interfaces we use today
are laughably inadequate for interaction. With AR glasses we may at
least get up from our asses and shut the door on the cubicle. Reading
company spreadsheets can be done just as well on the way to the beach.
The best ideas may come to our mind when we are in the supermarket,
only today we forget before we’re back at the computer. No more so. A
digital post-it or email is quickly edited in the corner of the eye.

But work and “productivity” is boring… Instead Google should be there
with us when we see a new butterfly in the park. Getting lost in the
city in the age of GPS? –That’s laughable! Directions should be where
they belong, as AR overlay. No more getting scammed in a shop. The
barcodes should trigger balloons with user tests and best prices on
the go. Blogger? -Updating the skateblog should be done when we are
actually up and rolling, complete with action footage and biometrics.
Why make do with just the normal senses? Nightvision? –No problems.
X-ray vision may come in handy while sharking by the pool, just pop
out the IR-filter if you are so inclined. Bad-hair-day? –Put on a
digital wig and a happy face. Bored? –Just connect to a robocam in a
Tokyo bar. Going to a meatspace party? Bring your avatar buddy along…

Starting to sound outlandish yet? SciFi? I say all this is very close
at hand, and we just need to light the match to set the digitality
ablaze. It is long overdue…

Tom:
You mention on the hackaday post that the image is doubled on the two
screens.  Have you figured out how to split the image to get the true 1280
width?

Staffan:

More or less. We will probably want to device a completely new
graphics card instead of doing too many hacks on the original MyVue
PCB, but it is doable even on that one. I’m just afraid that we may be
wasting valuable time going down that alley too far. I think it will
be better to put something together that doesn’t require un-human
soldering skills to work. I want to put together a more manageable kit
instead so that as many people as possible can get involved. The Kopin
displays are however well documented, and there is no magic involved
in interfacing with them. I  have a friend working on it, but don’t
want to push it. In the Hackerspace groups I also mention, we are
getting better organized. There is now a webspace up and running (for
our internal purposes as of yet), and we are putting together a
“to-do”-list allocating work-packages for the different members. The
front-page of Hackaday gave some new contacts too, and I’m having
serious pangs from my conscience for not handling them yet! I’ve been
lazing away with the family doing things like sailing and the like…

Tom:

How much would it cost if someone wanted to make their own pair?

Staffan:

A pair of MyVu glasses cost about $150 on eBay. Add some Fimo putty
and a pair of oversize-sunglasses (the kind that fits over regular
glasses) plus a couple of days work (depending on skill), and you have
a crude but passable pair.

If you want something better, you may download the meshes for the pair
I have and order better frames from an online prototype maker. I don’t
have the figures for how much that would be, but that is a quite
expensive alternative. Better then to wait until I can fill an order
with a Chinese factory. A box with a 100 pairs will cost about $100 a
pair.

There is then the video card, better battery and case… No figures there yet.

Tom:

Why are you going about this as an open source project?

Staffan:

Further, those who do understand say I’m either mad to disclose
everything on the net and to loose an excellent business opportunity,
or call me names for destroying the patentability for others. I
usually retort that the industry hasn’t moved at all for a decade, and
why do they believe I would fare any better? I also try to line out
the difficulties with classical innovation processes. I’ve been there,
on both sides of the fence. As inventor and as executive in a joint
industry-governmental innovation system. I know how bad it can be.So
much time and creative drive can be lost in anger over incompetence,
greed and dishonesty that you simply don’t want to think at all about
your project.

I believe that instead of getting entangled in patenting processes, VC
negotiations, hunting for (competent!) technical consultants,
marketing and manufacturing partners, it would be far better to copy
some applicable concepts from open source software development. With
the glasses, I want to perform an experiment. I would so much want to
put together a really nerdy team of developers that are driven by the
fun of problem solving and a feeling of contributing to a community
rather than for direct economic benefit. Not that there may not be a
chance to make some cash one day for everyone involved, only the money
should not be the driving force.

Here is a good clip to illustrate what I mean:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6XAPnuFjJc

Naturally, hardware is much more difficult to develop in a community
than software. However, I believe the time may be ripe for a test of
the concept. If any project can succeed, I think AR glasses is it. The
time should definitely be ripe for technologically inclined people to
want those for themselves. I know I definitely do. The basic concept
is also in place, and both PCB:s and plastic/mechanical components are
quite cheap to manufacture these days, even in singular quantities.
Many of the potential combined early adopters and developers will be
able to make their own glasses and feed the loop.

I can see an emerging ecosystem where different participants can
specialize and even start to make some money from selling
non-complicated sub-systems. There is also potential for spin-off
projects and services that will benefit from AR-glasses. There are
many angles to this experiment…

** End of Interview **

Whew.  I agree, Staffan, the time is ripe for a technologically savvy group to tackle the AR glasses problem.  And given the importance of this little piece of hardware to the overall AR ecosystem, I think it’s worth our time and hopefully worth your time to join this project if you have something to give in the way of knowledge, expertise or time.

So stop by Maxcware or contact him at staffan (at) maxcware (dot) com if you’d like to contribute.  Or at the very least, sound off your encouragement at Games Alfresco.

Augmented reality has come a long way in a years time.  Last year I got excited by research projects and gimmicky AR webcam advertising, but that quickly faded on the tenth plus iteration.  It wasn’t until July that we starting having real AR products in the form of apps.  Nearly a year later and still early in the development of the AR ecosystem, we’re seeing a more diverse use of the technology and that has me excited again.  So I want to take a moment to go over ten cool things going on right now in augmented reality.

1. Battle of the AR Browsers

Wikitude, Layar, Tonchidot, Junaio, TagWhat and others hope to be the standard for the AR browser market.  Layar has recently upped the ante with an AR content store and TagWhat takes it in a new direction by combining lessons learned with Foursquare and Twitter.  I suspect one of the big boys like Google, Twitter or Facebook will eventually either create their own or co-opt the ideas from these early browsers into their current products.  I’m not sure which horse to bet on in this race, but in the end we customers are the winners.

2. DIY Portable Augmented Reality Headset

Using an Eye-Trek video headset, the guy at Tailormadetoys made a pair of AR glasses.  I love the DIY culture and while they’re not see-through, I think all the right parts to make one are out there.  This post from Team Hack-a-Day proves that the DIY makers are getting close, so why can’t one of the big makers get it done?

3. The AR phone – Ouidoo

The specs on this Ouidoo QderoPateo smartphone are in the WTF!? zone.  While the phone won’t be out until the fall, the company claims it’ll have a 26-core CPU capable of 8-gigaflop floating point operations and include  512MB RAM, 4GB ROM, 28GB of built-in storage, microSD expansion, Bluetooth, WiFi, GPS, built-in 3D map, accelerometer, digital compass, 5-megapixel camera with flash, 220 hours of standby battery life, and a sharp 3.5-inch 800 x 480 screen.  Whew.

While I’m not completely believing the hype, and it could end up being vaporware, it certainly looks promising.  Though it’ll have to work hard to compete with the likes of the iPhone and Droid.

4. Eyeborg

Bionic eyes and augmented reality.  It’s like peanut better and chocolate!  Rob Spence is putting a camera into his eye to make movies with (and because its just plain cool.)  And he’s also interested in combining augmented reality with his eye camera.  They’ve come up with a promotionalAR eyeborg t-shirt in the meantime.

Eyeborg’s New AR shirt in action! from eyeborg on Vimeo.

5. ARE2010

Bruce Sterling, Will Wright, Marco Tempest, and the list goes on.  It pains me to say that I won’t be able to make the inaugural event.  I had a work conflict with that week, so I have to bow out of hosting the panel on AR glasses.  But for the rest of you, I hope you’ll be able to make it.  With AR on the rise and viable business options a-plenty, it’s a good time to network and see what everyone is doing with the nascent technology.  This is the “can’t miss” AR event of the year.

6. ARWave

Our favorite interviewer Tish Shute and longtime commenter Thomas Wrobel have been sheparding the AR Wave project and collaborating with people all over the globe.  While it’s still too early to tell, this could end up being one of the most important AR developments out there if they can truly create an open source way of using AR.  As they’ve been telling everyone, they’re trying to make a system that:

* Anyone can make content

* Anyone can make a browser

* Anyone can run a server

7. iPhone OS4.0

It almost pains me to get excited about an iPhone update that promises video access to make real AR work on that smartphone.  We got fooled last September with the OS3.1.  I’m hoping we don’t get fooled again (unless you’re the Who.)

8. Haptic AR floors

I’m not even entirely sure if haptic floors fit into the augmented reality spectrum, but it’s so crazy weird and true, that I had to include it.  I seriously doubt we’ll be seeing a commercial product anytime soon though (or ever.)

9. AR Drone

While the news on the AR drone is a stale few months old, I still think it warrants inclusion because it was a great product.  The hovercraft alone was worth the price of admission, but the AR added a creative twist to it.  I have no idea if it sold well, but it sure did capture the imaginations of a lot of geeks.

10. You choose!

Let us know what you think is the coolest thing going in augmented reality right now.  Whether it’s a product only hinted at or one currently residing on your smartphone, we’d like to hear it.  So let us know over at Games Alfresco in the comment section (pointing the conversation over there to keep the comments together)!

This summer, Phedhex, posted a concept video showcasing what augmented reality, or spatial computing, could do. The video was well thought out and I enjoyed it.

In the second video, he uses hand gestures to show how we can use augmented reality to purchase furniture in our homes and verify it for decor and size. The idea has been around with smartphone apps from Metaio, but Phedhex supersizes the idea and gives us a glimpse into an immersive version we’d see with a HMD. The production value of the video makes me think Phedhex should be doing a regular series on AR because it shows a tangible business case for increased investment into the fledgling technology.

The Vuzix Wrap 920AR aren’t the sexiest of specs, but they do perform the function of AR glasses.  I got a chance to see this setup at ISMAR09 which they’re now showing at CES 2010. 

The specs for the glasses look like:

The stereo camera pair delivers a single 1504 x 480 side-by-side image that can be viewed in 3D stereoscopic video, while the video eyewear provides an unprecedented 67-inch display as seen from 10 feet. The Wrap 920AR also includes a 6 Degree-of-Freedom Tracker, which allows for absolute accuracy of roll pitch and yaw and also X, Y and Z positioning in 3D space

Vuzix Wrap 920AR Specifications:

• 1/3-inch wide VGA Digital Image Sensor
• Resolution: 752H x 480W
• Includes 6 Degree-of-Freedom Tracker
• Frame rate: 60 fps
• Dynamic range: >55dB linear; >80-100dB in HiDy mode
• Shutter efficiency: >99%
• ADC Resolution: 10-bit column parallel
• High-speed USB 2.0
• PC and Mac compatible
• System requirements: Windows XP SP2, Windows Vista, Windows7, Mac OS X 10.4.9 or higher
• MSRP: $799.99

They probably won’t be worn in public anytime soon, but some creative programmers could create interesting house-only interactive avatars or AR spaces.  While some might scoff at this idea, see this video from Georgia Tech last year to see how even semi-cheesy graphics can make augmented reality immersive.  Having played the old VR game Dactyl Nightmare in the 1990s, the head-tracking really creates the illusion of reality. 

We haven’t seen any developers put together a product that takes advantage of these $800 glasses, but hopes are that exposure at CES 2010 will bring more interest. The only thing I’ve seen using the setup is the Whisper Deck from Craig Kapp.  Maybe later this year we might see some products that would entice the hard core AR enthusiast to fork out the cash for these un-sexy specs. 

I was going to expand on my predictions that Rouli had posted on Games Alfresco because, frankly, they were pretty lame (mine and not the other nine, those were good.)  But decided that there have been enough predictions for 2010.  So instead, I want to go over the things I want to happen in 2010 in regards to augmented reality.   

1. I want the Nexus One phone from Google to be untethered, cheap and make AR apps fun.

2. I want to be surprised by an AR ready HMD.

3. I want to see fun, creative AR games that are across all platforms and come at an affordable price. 

4. I want the AR inspection assist project I’m working on with Metaio to go flawlessly and for it to revolutionize the way we do difficult inspection job at Toyota and make it easier on our team members. 

5. I want Google Goggles to be a database that other programs can use for pattern recognition and markerless tracking.

6. I want to attend ISMAR10 even though its all the way over in South Korea.

7. I want the ISMAR09 presentations to be put up on YouTube so we can see all the great things that happened.

8. I want Apple to free their live video API for better AR on the iPhone.

9. I want to know what Neogence Enterprises has been working on all these years. 

10. I want to continue to make Games Alfresco the hands-down, defacto source for all your augmented reality news. 

So for all you programmers and entrepreneurs working on the latest in augmented reality tech, even though I may put up your YouTube video or link to your webpage and make semi-snarky comments about its usefulness or how its so-2009, I certainly appreciate your hard work.  Unless you were just mailing it in hoping to capitalize on the AR buzz, then you deserve it and then some.  For all of you in the former category, I leave you with my two favorite quotes to keep you going when things get tough:

All courses of action are risky, so prudence is no in avoiding danger (it’s impossible), but calculating risk and acting decisively.  Make mistakes of ambition and not mistakes of sloth.  Develop the strength to do bold things, not the strength to suffer. 

   — Niccolo Machiavelli, The Prince

IT IS NOT THE CRITIC WHO COUNTS: not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better.  The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again…who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly. 

   — Teddy Roosevelt

Wonderful proof-of-concept integration of voice recognition, web search, and FLARToolkit on a Vuzix+ARCam HMD.  Certainly makes me drool for a commercial see-through HMD with an iPhone/Android level of operating system.  His system also points in the direction of voice-command for HMDs until we can get good motion detection. 

Go to Craig’s website for more information and get him to the next ARDevCamp, pronto. 

Mark Pine, the keynote speaker from Disney Imagineering at ISMAR09, gave the audience compelling reasons why truly interactive experiences are the future of entertainment and the one I remember most was: “It’s about connecting with the user.”

Total Immersion has recently partnered with Hanwa Co. (Japan) to create a live action augmented reality video game that connects with the user in much the same way that Mark from Disney had displayed.  Unlike the projection based AR system that Disney used, Total Immersion have their guests wear a backpack and wield a video gun to hunt ghosts in the fully explorable house earning points as they capture them.   

“We’re demonstrating the magical ability of augmented reality to capture visitors’ attention and imagination,” said Bruno Uzzan, CEO, Total Immersion. “Guests experience real time interaction with augmented reality content — and are pulled into real life videogame, dynamically.”

More pictures can be seen on Total Immersion’s blog about AR and they recently uploaded this video to YouTube. 

Total Immersion reports a high revisit rate with teens and gamers which bodes well for AR driven entertainment.  Their AR entertainment experience makes me realize that the first real augmented reality HMDs won’t be bought by consumers, but instead will be used in malls and other family entertainment centers to create immersive gaming experiences like this ghost hunt. 

As the technology becomes more robust with occlusion, better graphics, and faster tracking; the complexity of the games will grow.  It’s not hard to imagine AR games like the one’s described in Larry Niven’s Dream Park taking over the laser tag centers in your local mall.  We just won’t tell the kids that they’re really LARPing.

Head-mounted displays are the killer hardware that augmented reality needs to break free from “magic lens” smartphone technology.  SAP TV shows us an industrial application concept at a Dailmer AG plant.  The part stocker is using an HMD with augmented reality to keep track of the correct parts (their wording makes it sound like this is a concept only.)

The concept screen the worker sees looks like:

If this technology can be realized then plant floors can make big improvements in efficiency and cost by cutting down on expensive errors.

The SiWear research project is sponsored by the German Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology. Partners are SAP Research, Daimler AG, teXXmo GmbH; The Mobile Research Center and Neo Business Partners GmbH.

The biggest barrier to true augmented vision is an HMD that can handle all the requirements.  I had the oppertunity to experience what Microvision, Vuzix and ORALab/EvoOpticks had to offer.  I’ll try to relate their talks and my experiences with their products and let you know if any of them have achieved augmented vision. 

Microvision – Ben Averch

Ben started the presentation during the Industrial section of Workshop Monday.  The first AR-style model Microvision tried was the Nomad which tried to be a hands-free automotive maintenance model.  The unit was plagued by poor ergonomics and eye strain.  It only used the red spectrum and they retired the product line in 2006 only two years after release. 

Microvision then changed their plans to achieve an AR enabled HMD by leveraging their military contracts.  The plan is to sell their Urban Warfare model (Ultra-vis) to the government and then use what they’ve learned to create a consumer model. 

They see a big market for a consumer HMD display but need to solve the remaining issues before its ready for the public.  I had an opportunity to try out their prototype HMD.  It wasn’t a full unit, but a bulky monocle on a stick.  While it didn’t give me an idea how it would function as a pair of sunglasses, it did give me a feel for the graphics.  I was impressed by the clarity of the color in the monocle.  The big problem I see for the first generation of HMDs will be the field of view.  This prototype only had a ~25degree field of vision.  The limited view will mean our early HMDs will only mimic our computer screens and not release the full spectrum of hands-free AR. 

Ben has written about his experience on his official Microvision blog and has said they expect a commercial product by 2011. 

It’s clear from the discussions I had with various industry members that a see-through wearable display that meets people’s expectations from both ergonomics and display performance is the big, obvious missing link in the AR solution story. We at Microvision are working hard to fill in this gap and create a technology solution that can allow this new market to take shape.

Ben also showed off their projector which at the time didn’t excite me much from an AR point of view.  However, after the key note speech from Mark Mine from Disnery Imagineering, I learned that the projector had a lot more going for it than I realized. 

Vuzix – Paul Travers

Paul gave us a nice history of HMDs including the failed hype of VR which has made getting money for HMDs harder to come by.  On a good note, Vuzix has a good track record of selling video glasses which gives them a good base to work from once they master the AR HMD.  Currently they’ve sold around 200,000 video glasses by marketing them the same way a HD TV would be sold.  This might mean that augmented reality’s best bet for widespread use is to be a Trojan horse within another accepted technology (similar to how Yelp gained AR eyeballs through their Monocle easter egg.) 

Unfortunately, Paul had to apologize a few times for misleading on the AR community about the “see-through AR HMDs” everyone thought were right around the corner with the 920Wrap.  He hopes they can reach market by 2010, but like Microvision they still have challenges to solve. 

I did get to try their video glasses, which were interesting, but I would have preferred to try out the glasses Ori tried at GDC.   Paul did say that see-through AR glasses would be priced from $199-349.  This sounds like a great price point that would help gain wider audiences.  I know I would buy one. 

ORALab/EvoOpticks

This presentation delved into more historical and technical realms rather than commercial usage.  Not a lot to pass along, but I did get to try their see-through HMD.  The view port was around 20 degrees and seen through two reflected mirrors on the screen rather than a laser created image.  They have no current plans for commercial production.   

And for the history buffs, the first patent for an HMD was by Albert B. Pratt in 1916. 

I wish Lumus had also attended ISMAR, but no such luck. 

Overall, I was disappointed that no HMD maker had a surprise announcement that they had a product ready for release Q1 2010.  Release dates of 2011 sound more like appeasement than real schedules.  Having experienced the products myself, I also realize the field of view will be a problem for early developers.  Don’t get me wrong, I’d be happy to have a HMD right now, even with a 15 degree field, but the small width will limit creativity.  Hopefully when they solve the lighting and weight issues they’ll also figure out how to achieve a 40 degree field of view. 

This past May, I predicted true Augmented Vision would occur around 2015.  After the demonstrations on Monday, I’m not going to change my prediction.  While I heard many quote Moore’s Law in regards to AR, I’m not buying it yet.  Moore’s Law is fed by billions (with B) of dollars which pushes the technology as fast as it can go.  AR is still languishing in VR’s dead space and has to catch a few wins of its own before it can start generating real cash to take advantage of Moore’s Law.   

Even if Microvision or Vuzix or Lumus release a commercial product in 2011, the software and apps to make the experience fulfilling won’t be available.  I also expect the first versions of the AR HMDs will only be bought by the early adopters.  It will take a few tries to make them lightweight, eye-strain free and with enough field of vision to keep people from having to rotate their head constantly.  I’m all for being wrong on this one, but I expect the road to widespread acceptance will be paved with a few missteps.  Cellphones took twenty years to go from the bag phone to the ultra-sleek smartphone, and while technology moves faster these days, I’m still sticking with my year 2015 prediction.