The birthday card in the video is unremarkable by augmented reality standards.  However, I think it does open up an interesting business opportunity for someone who can weasel their way into bed with a big name greeting card producer like Hallmark.  I’ll explain more:

The example in this video uses a standard marker for displaying the card.  As a business, this would fail for a couple of reasons.  The first is no one wants to print out a marker (or at least I don’t.)  The second is that if you give the “marker” to someone who doesn’t have a webcam, then your card is useless. 

The marker could be integrated into a standard greeting card (or commonly called a markerless) , so it could be freely given without worry of them not being able to recieve it.  If the person had a webcam, then they could view the extra content.  If not, then they still received a nice greeting card.  It might even have the side effect of driving someone to purchase a webcam if they didn’t have one to see the AR content.  A smartphone viewer might also make the AR greeting card more accessable (purchasing a card supported by your smartphone, so you could show them the extra content when you gave it.)  Either way, its a business oppertunity in the making. 

Most people have never seen a fan movie, nor had they ever considered that armies of rabid fans would spend their time and hard earned money to make a film as homage.

But they do. 

Some use games like World of Warcraft to stage their movies and others use animation and the really serious use amateur actors and shot it like a real film.  This ambitious group make a 40 minute Lord of the Rings fan movie called The Hunt for Gollum.  Over a hundred volunteers were used in the film.  Below is a trailer though you can see the full version here. 

THE HUNT FOR GOLLUM – FULL Trailer 1 from Independent Online Cinema on Vimeo.

While the film makers and enthusiasts involved have tons of energy, creativity and passion for their craft, they don’t have access to high end special effects for their films.  This is where augmented reality comes in. 

A simple suite of fantasy and science fiction objects (since these seem to be the most common genres), and the ability to add other objects from user created files, along with proper shadows and occlusion could be a powerful tool in the fan movie creators hands.  These tools would enhance their ability for storytelling without breaking the bank. 

So this week’s challenge is for an AR developer to put a simple package together for fan movies to use.  The package could be used from the short spoofs on YouTube to the extravagant spectacles as the Hunt for Gollum movie.  Remember, millions of people upload clips to YouTube on a regular basis, so that’s a large potential market for AR devlopment products.

During the next year, we’re going to see a host of new AR gimmicks and websites that will claim that AR has been used to improve their business.  In this post from webdistortion.com, the author claims that 8 AR marketing campaigns have been “used…to great effect.”  Unless the desired effect was to print out lots of AR marker papers, I’m going to disagree.  The main focus of a marketing campaign should not be website traffic, but reaching customers and increasing sales.  The only way we can say these AR marketing campaigns worked was if they converted traffic into a sale, but my guess is most people were there to see the gimmick.

One of the problems with the AR gimmick, besides that people are mostly there to see a demonstration of the technology and not the product, is the friction of actually using it.  To see the AR version of the product, one has to print out a piece of paper, get the webcam hooked up and hold it up to see it work.  This is a lot of work compared to driving by billboard that says “Eat At Joes”.

All that work is the friction.  There is a universal law that says, “the easier something is to do, the more likely people will do it.”  The AR gimmick marketing campaigns are high in friction.  They’ll work the first few times , but once their curiosity is satiated, they won’t bother.  It’s too much work.

The purpose of this post is not to pile on the hate for these style of marketing campaigns.  Instead I’d like to point out that marketing campaign developers need to move beyond the current situation.  Once people are familiar with the technology, the desire to see a new gimmick is not going to be enough to overcome the friction of all that work.  So to reach potential customers, you need to either make it easier to use or create a higher level of desire.

Find ways to make it paperless, add a coolness factor that others haven’t seen (make a purple cow), turn it into an iPhone app that people will use, make it interact with real world objects, make it educational, etc.

In other words, use your brain and don’t be like these guys from Seth Godin’s blog:

I recall having a conversation with the marketing folks at Simon & Schuster.  I complained that I had just returned from a road trip and didn’t see the book in a single airport book store.  I insisted that business travelers were the ideal audience.  They came back to me with a simple request:  tell me where you or Seth were going to be flying and they would make sure that the book was in the bookstore in that airport…

I’m typing this post on my kids computer since my motherboard crashed on mine.  I had some more in-depth posts planned, but until I can get my computer up and running (new MB is currently installed and now partitioning the hard drive), I’m just going to throw out some interesting links.  Hopefully tomorow I can get some more meat up on the page. 

But before I do that, I’d like to thank all those that read and commented on my Path to Augmented Vision post which surpassed my previous top post Automating the Digitalization of the World.  Special thanks to Rouli who helped clean up my draft version of the post. 

Which leads me to the New SREngine video from Rouli/Ori’ssites.  The updated SREngine is fascinating and is an impressive piece of work for one man.  I can’t wait to see it on the iPhone. 

The next link is from Shepherd’s Piabout his talk “Instrumenting the World” and his recent experiences discussing Augmented Reality with various government groups including the DoDIIS (Department of Defense Intelligence Information Systems). 

Lastly, Jan at Augmented Reality Blog brings us a usability test of “Unifeye Design”–an augmented reality programming tool for non-programmers.  I didn’t get a chance to try it out, but I’m sure I will once I wrangle my new computer into submission.

If you’ve ever bought a marble run, rollercoaster or any other type of plastic track that requires hours of set up and falls to pieces at the wrong touch, then you’ll appreciate this idea. 

Last week, my wife and kids set up a marble run in our living room.  It took hours to set up because the tracks kept falling over.  The bases were too light to hold up any track over a foot tall.  Once they had all the bases secured down with heavy books they had to contend a new problem–the ball jumping the tracks on tight turns. 

They got it working finally, but making any changes to it would have been frustrating so the result ended up to be pretty static and they took it down that night.  I thought it seemed like a perfect solution for a console AR game. 

The advantage of using a console (Wii, XBox, Playstation3, etc) is that the structure of AR family entertainment center is already in place.  With a big screen TV, a wide open space, and camera, the living room could be converted into an exciting game center.  In much the same way that the Wii revolutionized interaction with the console games with gesture based gaming, AR could up the ante by providing a visual context for the games. 

Using the simple idea of the marble run, operators could place tracks in their living room using the controller.  The program could snap them together creaing fantasical designs.  If you wanted to learn more about physics, you could have a “realistic” version that shot the marble off if you made the tracks wrong. 

Roller coaster design games like Roller Coaster Tycoon have been around for years on the PC, but using AR could reinvigorate them by making the game come to life in the living room.   The use of AR should be brought to market in the same way as the Wii.  They didn’t have better graphics, but instead showed how getting people physically involved with the games got people interested, even people that had never played games before.

The following video from Immersion R&D shows the manipulation of a 3D object using their Cubtile device.  I’m not particularly keen on the cube because it seems more like a prop out of a bad science fiction movie rather than a real interface device.  I really couldn’t imagine having one of those in my house or at work. 

However, the manipulation of the 3D object shows off nice usage of AR in a hologram sort of way.  The interesting part of the video comes at 1:08 when she pulls the object out of the cube. 

Using a haptic or air-touch system, 3D object manipulation could be useful for designers that need to see all views of an object.  But they will also need a way to select individual surfaces, lines or points to make real changes. 

Having watched many of my engineers or techs manipulate 3D objects, I can say they spend a lot of time rotating objects around to get the proper view.  Using AR glasses with a freeform control that feels natural (not the cube) in their resident 3D program (design, manufacturing, etc), they could improve their development time by a significant amount to make it worth the additional cost of the AR program. 

Unfortunately, this means unless a universal AR viewer can be applied to any 3D program, each product developer will have to incorporate AR into their product.  We use a wide variety of programs at our one facility: MasterCam, CamTool, Pro/E Wildfire, CADLite, etc., so the cost could skyrocket quickly, making any benefits cost prohibitive.

Last fall I attended the Saturday Writers conference and listened to a talk given by Krista Goering from the Krista Goering Literary Agency LLC.  Krista enlightened us with the inner workings of the publishing industry.  This knowledge has been instructive as I have researched the effects of the newer digital distribution models like e-Books, print-on-demand and the Espresso Book Machine. 

I contacted Krista to see if I could interview her about these technologies and she graciously accepted.  I’ll let you read the interview in its entirety:

Tom: Publishing houses are experimenting with different profit models, like 50/50 splits, in response to the changing market.  How does that affect your role as an agent?

 

Krista: As publishers continue to streamline and downsize their staff, they will continue to need agents to bring quality projects to them. My role as an agent is to read through a lot of query letters, proposals, and manuscripts to find projects which I believe I can sell to publishers. In most cases, the manuscript or proposal is not ready to send to a potential publisher and my job is to help get it ready. I don’t see that changing. Profit models may change, but publishers will always need quality writing. 

 

Tom: With the advent of digital books on the Kindle2, Sony Reader and the iPhone; DRM (digital rights management) has become an issue for authors.  What is your opinion on authors that wish to pursue DRM-free content, even if it puts them at odds with distributors?

 

Krista: The DRM issue is in flux. I read recently that the major labels conducted their own tests with Amazon, Walmart.com and others and reached the conclusion that MP3 distribution (DRM-free) does not in itself lead to increased piracy, and they are now moving their entire catalogs to this approach.

 

 

Tom: If technologies like the Espresso Book Machine become widely used, creating a direct-to-consumer distribution model, what will publishers have to offer authors?

 

Krista: Any time a book is published, it takes a lot of time, energy and creativity to let potential readers know it’s available. Getting them to buy the book is another hurdle. Traditional publishers use bookstores to distribute their books, but some publishing companies are using a direct-to-consumer distribution model. They still need quality authors to publish – specifically authors who are ready, willing and able to promote themselves and their books. I’m always looking for publishers who are looking for great authors, regardless of their distribution model.

 

 

Tom: If technologies like the Espresso Book Machine become widely used, creating a direct-to-consumer distribution model, what will agents have to offer authors?

 

Krista: Agents will continue to offer authors the services they currently offer — specialized knowledge about the publishing industry and the ability to “get a foot in the door” with publishers. I don’t see that changing. For example, I represent an author who is being considered by one of the direct-to-consumer publishers I mentioned above – the fact that they have a direct-to-consumer distribution model doesn’t change the fact that they need quality authors. I know what publishers are looking for in an author – and when I find a “match” I hook them up.

  

Tom: Have the recent digital technologies changed the way you have approached your business?  And if so, how?

 

Krista: I’m still selling books to publishers – whether they publish the books in print or in digital format, or produce an audio book.  The change I’venoticed recently is that publishers are using digital technologies to their advantage to improve the process of communicating with the agent and author during the process of selecting, submitting and editing the work as well as to market and promote the book. For example, rather than print a large number of ARCs (advance reading copies) some publishers are sending the ARC by email in pdf format.  Keeps costs down and saves paper.

 

 

Tom: Do the changes in the technologies pose any legal challenges to agents?  And if so, how?

 

Krista: I’m not sure I’m thinking of “legal challenges” in the same way you are, but the legal challenges I usually think of are copyright protection, plagiarism, and piracy.  These are problems facing publishers and authors, so they also affect agents. If it becomes easy to “rip off” publishers using technology, authors will suffer and so will their agents.

 

Tom: What do you think the publishing business will look like in ten years for publishers, authors and agents?

 

Krista: Regardless of how the product is delivered in ten years, books will still be written and sold. People will always need information, so they will continue to buy nonfiction books, and people love great storytelling, so people will also continue to buy novels –either in print, in audio form, in digital form, or in a form we haven’t imagined yet. Publishers will continue to be on the cutting edge of delivering content to the public. Agents will continue to bring quality authors to the attention of publishers looking for great authors.

Krista makes a lot of great points about the changing marketplace and I can tell she has her finger firmly on the pulse of these changes.  When she left me with one last comment that summarized her answers, I could tell she saw through my ham-handed subterfuge, answering the question I was really asking: “Do we still need to bother with publishers if we can sell direct-to-readers?”  I’ll let you see her answer yourself.

Krista:  I also wanted to address what you call “disruptive technologies like e-Books, print-on-demand and the EBM.” People may think the Espresso book machine will replace traditional publishing by traditional publishing companies, but I don’t see that happening.  Sure, these technologies may make it a lot easier for a person to self-publish and sell direct-to-consumer. But self-published authors can already create e-books and get their books printed fairly cheaply now at a POD printer. The hardest part about selling a book to the consumer is getting her attention and creating such a desire in the consumer that she is willing to part with $15-$20 to read the book.

The last part hits the topic squarely between the eyes–”the hardest part about selling a book to the customer is getting her attention”.  Even with an author’s ability to use the Internet to laser onto potential readers, the publishing houses outgun them wielding mass weaponry to reach a wider audience.   

These new technologies are sure to shake up the publishing industry, removing the tangled knots, until we have a more streamlined process of reaching our readers without filling warehouses with unloved books.  The publishing industry won’t be going away, because it still sets a bar that authors must jump over to prove their worth before potential readers will plop down their hard earned cash. 

Will some authors bypass the publishing industry?  Absolutely.  But the majority would rather spend their time working on their next novel than worrying about marketing plans. 

It will take time for the real consequences of these new technologies to be understood and exploited, so I think the publishing industry is safe.  And besides, there are only two Espresso Book Machines in the whole of the US.   

For now.

AR Media, a brand of Inglobe Technologies, has released an AR plug-in for Google SketchUp.  Google SketchUp is a program that can create, modify and share 3D models.  The plug-in allows for use those models in an AR environment. 

They have versions (AR-Media Plugin v1.1) for both Windows and Mac.  An installation and user guide can be found here.  A trial version can be downloaded but it only allows the objects to stay on the screen for 30 seconds.  The video shows a brief example of the usage.  I can’t get a feel for how friendly or easy it is from the video, but its another tool in the AR toolbox.

When I started this blog a few months ago, I thought it was going to be hard to have something to talk even once a week.  Little did I know, I would have to restrain myself from posting everyday or sometimes twice a day.  The wealth of topics says a lot for the robustness of the fledgling augmented reality movement.  Hopefully in my enthusiasm, I’ve tilted the scales into the quality and not quantity category, but I’ll let you, the reader, judge me. 

My readership has increased steadily the past three months which has encouraged me to try harder and make sure I’m giving you a reason to come back.  For those that may have recently stumbled upon my little corner of the Internet, I wanted to go back and pick out some of my favorite posts so far.

Sign of the Singularity.  This one was one of my favorites to write because I got to work in “robot apocalypse” and “the machine that goes ping!”.  I, like most nerds, relish any apocalyptic catastrophe because of the chance of being the only male in a hidden settlement with Megan Fox look-a-likes.  Oh yeah, and there’s a computer that can perform experiments.  Did I mention Megan Fox?

Can AR Help Manufacturing? and AR for Industry.  When I started this I honestly didn’t expect to find good uses for AR for my day job as a Toyota plant Quality and Engineering Manager.  However, after reviewing a few videos and having a great conversation with Jan from Metaio, my mind was ablaze with ideas.  In fact, I’ve started working with Metaio on a few projects and hopefully, in a month or so, I can give more details on how we’re using augmented reality in an industrial setting. 

The Digital Sea.  This is what got me started.  Working up the concepts for three novels left me with orphan ideas without a home, so I decided to start this blog to share.  This is one of my early posts.  I’m not sure I like my voice, but we have to start somewhere. 

Why Digital Matters.  I’ve hit this theme for specific industries a few times since, and I’m sure I’ll find more examples in the future.  But for any industry that deals in information locked into physical media.  Beware.  Your time is coming.

Machines That Know.  The Good and the Bad.  In this trifecta of posts I looked at the repercussions of personal data in an augmented reality world.  As machines can recognize people, facial expression and objects, our freedoms can be impinged upon.  While AR is a fun technology with lots of potential.  We should always remember that the laws of unintended consequences can bite us if we’re not vigilant. 

This concludes my little flashback into the recent past and now that its over, I’m ready to get back to more cool new stuff.  I have a notebook full of new ideas and as I look around the Internet, people are blowing away my expectations of what augmented reality can do right now.  I can’t wait for the next post.

Thomas Purves brings us a nice presentation on augmented reality.  Some thought provoking material and I like the line: 

“In the new augmented reality, the web surfes you.”

I might add more comments later, but right now I’m busy conserving all my energy in case I have to fight off the Swine Flu.